Overfitting

In mathematical modeling, overfitting is the production of an analysis that corresponds too closely or exactly to a particular set of data, and may therefore fail to fit to additional data or predict future observations reliably. An overfitted model is a mathematical model that contains more parameters than can be justified by the data. In the special case of a model that consists of a polynomial function, these parameters represent the degree of a polynomial.

The essence of overfitting is to unknowingly extract some of the residual variation as if that variation represents the underlying model structure.

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Source: Wikipedia · Image: Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0

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